I wouldn't bet the farm on it shutting down. After listening to the TV talk shows this morning, I'd say the chance is considerably less than 99%. Republican leaders will cave, IMO. I got the sense the cooler heads in the party don't want a government closure albatross around their necks as they start gearing up for the 2012 elections...and are going to do whatever it takes to avoid it.
Besides, that House-passed ~15% spending cut has zero chance of surviving in the Senate anyway so they have lots of wiggle room to find some common ground to keep the government office lights on. Or pass another continuing resolution. Either way, I'm betting we won't see a closure.
There'll be a lot of wheeling and dealing this coming week with the Senate out of session. And then not much time left until the 4th so this one will go right down to the wire. Prediction: The 4th will pass without a budget agreement but they'll settle that weekend and all offices will open as usual Monday morning, 7 March. These guys are quite cognizant of the news cycle deadlines and will milk this situation for every advantage possible short of alienating the voters.




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