PPP: Obama trails Rommney...Obama, Palin tied 46/46 in 2012 polling
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Thread: PPP: Obama trails Rommney...Obama, Palin tied 46/46 in 2012 polling

  1. #1
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    Exclamation PPP: Obama trails Rommney...Obama, Palin tied 46/46 in 2012 polling

    Hot Air PPP: Obama, Palin tied 46/46 in 2012 polling
    PPP: Obama, Palin tied 46/46 in 2012 pollingShareposted at 12:55 pm on July 15, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

    No, this is not coming from Rasmussen or an internal GOP poll, but from the normally Democrat-sympathetic Public Policy Polling. PPP pitted Barack Obama against five potential Republican challengers for the 2012 presidential campaign, and the only one Obama beat was … Jan Brewer. Even that, PPP admitted, resulted from Brewer’s lack of name recognition. The headline, though, is Sarah Palin’s dead heat with the President:

    With his approval numbers hitting new lows it’s no surprise that Barack Obama’s numbers in our monthly look ahead to the 2012 Presidential race are their worst ever this month. He trails Mitt Romney 46-43, Mike Huckabee 47-45, Newt Gingrich 46-45, and is even tied with Sarah Palin at 46. The only person tested he leads is Jan Brewer, who doesn’t have particularly high name recognition on the national level at this point.

    It’s not that any of the Republican candidates are particularly well liked. Only Huckabee has positive favorability numbers at 37/28. Romney’s at 32/33, Gingrich at 32/42, Palin at 37/52, and Brewer at 17/20. But with a majority of Americans now disapproving of Obama it’s no surprise that a large chunk of them would replace him as President if they had that choice today.

    There are two things driving these strong poll numbers for the Republican candidates. The first is a lead with independents in every match up. Romney leads 48-35 with them, Gingrich is up 50-39, Huckabee has a 46-40 advantage, Palin’s up 47-42, and even Brewer has a 38-37 edge.

    In case one wonders whether PPP’s sample is to blame, the partisan split favors Democrats by five points, 39/34. That’s probably overstating the actual size of the gap and the percentage of Democrats in the general population, which means that the independents got short shrift as well. Also note that this poll surveyed registered voters, not likely voters — a sampling technique that would tend to favor Democrats and Obama a little more.

    The news is almost uniformly bad for Obama in the poll. His approval rating is now seriously underwater at 45/52. That gets even worse among independents, 40/56. He doesn’t get above 46% in any matchup with Republicans, not even Jan Brewer, whom he beats 44/36, with 20% undecided.

    For Palin, the numbers show she can play against Obama. She pulls 8% of those who voted for Obama in 2008 and 35% of those who “don’t remember” (?!?), which puts her on par for outreach with Gingrich (9%, 40%), Romney (9%, 32%), and slightly better than Huckabee (6%, 32%). If that’s not vindication for those who argued that Palin couldn’t do as well with unaffiliated voters, it’s cetainly something close to it.

    Update: There seems to be some confusion in the comments over the number of people who claimed not to remember how they voted in 2008. That was 9% of the respondents in the survey (combined with those who voted third party). Since Obama won the 2008 popular vote by seven points (53/46) and this Dem +5 poll shows only 46% of respondents acknowledging their vote for Obama, I’d say it’s a healthy probability that most of that 9% voted for Obama and don’t want to acknowledge it now. Of that 9%, Palin wins 35%, Gingrich wins 40%, and so on.
    FESTUS
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  3. #2
    Near the end - how do you not remember who you voted for? Sounds like people didn't want to say who they voted for.

    I remember liking a lot of what Mitt had to say when he ran for the nomination in '08. I haven't kept up so I don't know if I would vote for him in the primary or not (it also depends on who else is running). The fact that he is a Mormon does not bother me at all. What I don't know is where he stands on the 2nd Ammendment, which will obviously figure in.

    It does shock me that they think Brewer has no name recognition.

    I will not be voting for Obozo. I voted McCain/Palin (actually my preference was Palin/McCain) last election.

  4. #3
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    I voted for the McCain ticket because that was the one which didn't make me sick to my stomach, and only because of his choice of running mate. Obama, Clinton, Gore...they're all cut from the same cloth, IMHO - New World Order types, and - as evidenced by the last 18 months - will result in National chaos. I voted for whom I thought would do better for us...maybe not a hellova LOT better, but better. He's still a RINO and always will be...McCain/Feingold did him in for me.

    If I were in the business of designing Presidential campaigns, I think my first choice last time would have been for Condoleezza Rice, for a number of reasons: She's an intelligent, dynamic and Conservative candidate; she'd appeal to minorities on several levels - Black and Female, f'rinstance; She has National and International experience and is respected as a formidable personality in those circles; She has vast Diplomatic experience she brings to the table; etc...

    I would possibly pair her up with a Newt Gingrich for Vice, again because of experience, Conservatism, and the proven ability to get stuff done (e.g., the Contract with America). He would also not be the embarrassment that our current Dan Quayle wannbe has proven to be!

    I think Sarah Palin is Great, and I would vote for her for any office she ran for, even President. But I'd design her into a Cabinet post under Rice/Gingrich to give her 4 or 8 years more National-level experience before I ran her for President...give the country a chance to see what she can do - which I think will be very positive for her - and make her more acceptable to her detractors, of which I think there are enough currently to keep her from winning.

    I think the other Republicans - Romney, Huckabee, etc. - are also-ran's with less than excellent Conservative credentials. I would have voted - once upon a time - for Colin Powell, but he turned out to be an ethnic cling-on, showing his true colors by becoming an Obama supporter.

    One man's opinion...
    NRA Life; GOA Life; CCRKBA Life; Trustee, NJCSD; F&AM: 32į & KT
    The Only Answer to a Bad Guy with a Gun - Is a Good Guy with a Gun!
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  5. #4
    wolfhunter Guest
    In the last presidential race, when there were still 5 Republican candidates, the media considered McCain the most liberal of the group. When McCain got the nomination he suddenly got slammed by the same media for being too conservative.

  6. #5
    handgonnetoter Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by wolfhunter View Post
    In the last presidential race, when there were still 5 Republican candidates, the media considered McCain the most liberal of the group. When McCain got the nomination he suddenly got slammed by the same media for being too conservative.
    To hell with the media.

  7. #6
    we the people are pissed. I don't think this is the kind of "change" that people wanted when they voted for the current socialist in the white house. I only hope that people don't "forget" when the time comes to do something and vote away these jackasses.
    You can have my freedom as soon as I'm done with it!!!

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