A question about political opinion polls?
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Thread: A question about political opinion polls?

  1. #1

    A question about political opinion polls?

    With polling companies telling us that Hillary or Trump are ahead in different states..... how accurate is this, especially since they call landlines primarily to survey people? Nearly half of the households in the US no longer have a landline, and I suspect that it is the younger that no longer have a landline phone in their home.
    “Religion is an insult to human dignity. Without it you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things.
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  3. #2
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    Howdy,

    It depends on who is doing the polling.

    Also you cannot just look at one poll you have to take numerous ones, add the numbers and divide by the number of polls to get a decent average.

    You should also avoid polls from extreme groups no matter if they are left or right because each has an agenda.

    The pollster call cell phones all the time and I've even received one on my GI cell phone. About two months ago I was expecting a phone call from DC and when I answered the call it was a pollster.

    Paul
    I'm so Liberal that I work at the Bill and Hillary Clinton Regional Airport!

  4. #3
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    Read The 2016 Guide to Political Predictions. The important part is that polls that are consistently and repeatedly taken over time show trends and eventual election results with high accuracy. Landslide win/loss trends are obviously more accurate than close calls, as close calls are within the margin of error.

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Stengun View Post
    Howdy,

    It depends on who is doing the polling.

    Also you cannot just look at one poll you have to take numerous ones, add the numbers and divide by the number of polls to get a decent average.

    You should also avoid polls from extreme groups no matter if they are left or right because each has an agenda.

    The pollster call cell phones all the time and I've even received one on my GI cell phone. About two months ago I was expecting a phone call from DC and when I answered the call it was a pollster.

    Paul

    Your correct, you need to get into the weds with every poll you see, the polls that screw the people to call a higher number of democrats or republicans can't be counted and the fact that there are a large number of people who don't have land lines is important, since the cell phones aren't being called as much. Also in a report last week, the people who are registered voters are being polled at a higher level that actual voters and we all know they have a habit of not going to vote in presidential elections if past elections are taken into account.
    The only easy day was yesterday
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  6. #5
    CONFIRMED CHEATING: Pollsters Loading Polls with Democrats to Give Hillary a Lead Over Trump
    .
    (Gateway Pundit) – Donald Trump shattered the previous GOP primary record by 1.4 million votes this year — and that was with 17 candidates in the race!
    .
    Hillary Clinton received 1.5 million fewer votes this year than she did in 2008 – when she lost!
    .
    Hillary can’t fill a high school gymnasium this week without hauling in high school kids to sit in the stands.
    .
    Democrats are in a panic.
    .
    So leave it to the media to jump in and help their candidate.
    .
    Reuters tweaked their polling methods this week to give Hillary a lead.
    .
    Reuters -Ipsos used more than 100 more Democrats in their poll to give Hillary a lead over Donald Trump.
    .
    Read More: CONFIRMED CHEATING: Pollsters Loading Polls with Democrats to Give Hillary a Lead Over Trump
    .
    My Thoughts:
    .
    This just proves my point that when you poll a higher number of democrats your poll numbers will be sewed and a false representation of the poll.
    The only easy day was yesterday
    Dedicated to my brother in law who died
    doing what he loved being a Navy SEAL

  7. #6
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    I always find it funny when a the candidate who is not leading in the polls and his followers argue that the polls are somehow rigged. If they were leading in the polls, they certainly would not make this argument. Those with a brain can read the article I linked (The 2016 Guide to Political Predictions) and educate themselves about the high accuracy and very rare, but sometimes quite catastrophic, failures of polls.

    As for comparing primary polls and elections with general polls and election, that's just outright dumb. The primaries are contests within the same party. A general election is a contest across the entire country. Here is the breakdown of the Republican primaries:

    Trump: 13,300,472
    Cruz: 7,637,262
    Kasich: 4,165,281
    Rubio: 3,481,610

    This means that 15,284,153 people didn't vote for Donald Trump in the primaries. That's 1,983,681 more than those that voted for him. 126,144,000 voted in the 2012 general election. This means, about 11% of likely voters voted for Donald Trump in the primaries, while 12% voted for a different Republican candidate. If Donald Trump would be able to win over all Republican primary voters, he would reach 23%. However, we know that he has not won over all Republican primary voters and likely will not.

    His current poll numbers have him at 37.4%, which means there are a lot of voters that didn't vote in the Republican primary at all, but would vote for Trump in the general election. Hillary is currently polling at 43.6% and also has many voters that didn't vote for her in the Democrat primary but would so in the general election. Attendance at rallies is not an indicator of how the whole country votes. As shown in these numbers, there is a silent majority that is not fully committed to either side. That silent majority decides the election and not the base that comes out for rallies.

  8. #7
    your post is all well and good, but it doesn't talk to the fact and proven that there are a whole lot of fraudulent voting. Just look up the number of people who were caught voting multiple times and the number of people who have been dead for years and still on the books and have shown to have voted and you'll see that the vast majority of these people were democrat.
    The only easy day was yesterday
    Dedicated to my brother in law who died
    doing what he loved being a Navy SEAL

  9. #8
    Polls are highly over rated. If you are doing a poll to see how Hillary is doing, you to a place where liberals are know to be, or call areas where they live. The same goes for every party. And, especially News Media. It is all rigged. You give me a subject and I can do a poll and come up with any result you want. The only poll that matters is on Nov. 8th 2016. And I'm not too sure it that won't be rigged. Like the Democrats say, "Vote early and vote often, Especially if you have passed away, or are not suppose to be in America."

  10. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by opsspec1991 View Post
    your post is all well and good, but it doesn't talk to the fact and proven that there are a whole lot of fraudulent voting. Just look up the number of people who were caught voting multiple times and the number of people who have been dead for years and still on the books and have shown to have voted and you'll see that the vast majority of these people were democrat.
    This entire thread is about polling and not voting or voter fraud. Do you understand the difference? The only reason why I mentioned voting results in my post is because you compared them with polls, in a quite nonsensical way.

  11. #10
    Fraudulent polls and fraudulent voting go hand in hand.
    The only easy day was yesterday
    Dedicated to my brother in law who died
    doing what he loved being a Navy SEAL

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