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  1. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Stengun View Post
    Howdy,

    Here's a quote from the Donald:

    "I'm going to lose so bigly that it will be amazing. Trust me. It will be so incredible that it'll make you head spin. Trust me. It'll be incredible. My tiny hands? They don't mean any thing. It's incredible. Trust me. She's a nasty woman. Trust me. I'm a bad hombre. It's incredible. But she's a nasty woman. Trust me. It's bigly."

    Paul

    P.S. My prediction: Pain. Lots of pain. And crying and whiny from the basement dwellers and trailer park crowd.

    :
    What, if by chance, you are wrong and this would be the New York Times headline next Wednesday?

    Predictions-cx_uq3nvaaafaq-1024x792.jpg

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  3. #12
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    Basis For Claims

    Quote Originally Posted by Stengun View Post
    Howdy,

    Here's a quote from the Donald:

    "I'm going to lose so bigly that it will be amazing. Trust me. It will be so incredible that it'll make you head spin. Trust me. It'll be incredible. My tiny hands? They don't mean any thing. It's incredible. Trust me. She's a nasty woman. Trust me. I'm a bad hombre. It's incredible. But she's a nasty woman. Trust me. It's bigly."

    Paul

    P.S. My prediction: Pain. Lots of pain. And crying and whiny from the basement dwellers and trailer park crowd.

    :
    Hey Stengun,

    Since it sounds (from your prediction above) like you are claiming that Trump will lose the election (I think, although you didn't come right out and say it), I'm curious as to the basis for your claims. Please note that I'm not refuting you one way or the other, I'm simply asking you to back up your position with some sort of evidence (this can be hard to do since technically, we can't see the future... but in the case of my prediction, I provided examples of what data I was relying on in developing my prediction for a Trump win initially, and then provided additional comments citing market factors and Wikileaks / FBI factors as additional examples of support for my claim). Keep in mind that if you end up citing aggregate polls (such as RealClearPolitics, as I did), when the candidates are within a percentage point or two of each other (as they are in Florida) then that's considered well within the margin of error, so we can't really know for sure, but we can make estimates based on trends.

    So, what's your data, and upon what do you base your assertions?

    Note: Before you respond, you should probably take a look at the data in from Florida on early voting, indicating that Republicans have the advantage there. (I believe that right now Republicans are leading in either 33 or 34 of Florida's 67 counties, based on just the early voting alone, so to say Florida is a close race would be putting it mildly indeed.) https://countyballotfiles.elections....ts/PublicStats -- The swing counties in Florida, and thus the counties that could tip the election (within Florida itself), are Pinellas and Hillsborough. Early voting data presently has more Democratic ballots returned in those two counties, but the count is not yet complete and the upswing in poll / market conditions (that seems to have translated into a trend favoring Trump in swing states) has not yet been felt and translated into votes on election day. (Additionally, the early vote plus military / overseas / absentee ballot count is not complete until after election day, November 8th.)

    (Edited to add more indicators:) If you are looking for more indicators prior to election day about voter sentiment in Florida, which absolutely and certainly is the key state in this Presidential race, take a look at what's happening with the Senate race there. Per CNN, "Sen. Marco Rubio heads into Election Day as a favorite against Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, buoyed by GOP money, name recognition and winning over Latino voters in Miami-Dade County. But Florida is the ultimate swing state -- and no statewide race there can be taken for granted. Murphy has benefited by a renewed push by the top of the ticket -- and by President Barack Obama -- hoping to ride Hillary Clinton's coattails into office, even though Democratic groups have mostly avoided spending in the expensive state.
    A CNN-ORC poll out Wednesday showed Rubio clinging to a one-point lead, but most operatives on both sides believe the GOP senator is in a more comfortable position." This is one more indicator which suggests that Republicans are moving comfortably towards a positive finish in Florida, and although the Presidential race will be close, I continue to assert that Trump will be the winner, based on the data that is available to us right now (as has been cited in this thread).
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  4. #13
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    Factoring in Latest FiveThirtyEight Analysis of Florida

    This was unexpected, but I'm not surprised at the result.

    Recall that in my post kicking off this discussion I mentioned that I was using RealClearPolitics (aggregated polls) and information from FiveThirtyEight to come up with my conclusions supporting the notion of Trump taking Florida, NC, and NC, deadlocking the Electoral College 269-269, resulting in the election being sent to the House for a final vote where Trump would be voted in as President?

    At that time, FiveThirtyEight was kind of mum or inconclusive about what would happen in Florida. If anything it seemed that FiveThirtyEight seemed to be leaning toward the idea that Clinton would take Florida although they did not say so.

    Some additional information has just been released about half an hour ago from FiveThirtyEight which now seems to add clarity to their position on the issue. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has come down definitively suggesting based on his analysis that Florida will go to Trump. His numbers are shown at the following page as is a link to his methodology.

    This of course has infuriated some Democrats (including HuffPo followers) to no end, but the numbers don't lie. All factors currently point to a Trump victory in Florida (and ultimately a Trump victory in a House vote), and Dems are struggling to cope with this reality. I'd be very surprised if there was a different result following November 8th (also note as I've pointed out before, military / overseas ballots will not be fully counted until after November 8th).

    Here is the FiveThirtyEight page on Florida as updated about half an hour ago:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/.../florida/#plus

    It clearly favors Trump.
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  5. #14
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    State of Our Nation As Described by Ringo

    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo View Post
    How evil are we as a nation for killing 60 million of our own babies since Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973? The truth is that we are a nation full of mass killers, and those that celebrate our slaughter are elected to the highest offices in the land. The blood of our murdered children is crying out from the ground against us, and there's no possible way that America will ever be “great” again as long as we continue to ruthlessly take the lives of our unborn. In America today, we call evil good and good evil, and those that are butchering babies are completely unrepentant about what they are doing. Every time we murder another child, we curse ourselves, and I don’t know if there are words to describe how evil America has become. I predict that this will be our last election. The Word of God warns that nothing will get better, everything will wax worse and worse .

    The American Mainstream Media and the majority of Washington D.C. are dominated today by a demonic, relativistic, leftist, secular and godless mindset; and it's from this insane asylum that they seek to rule and lead. Every year God's precepts are rejected with new laws promoting homosexuality, removing any mention of Him in government and school and stifling the freedom that allows Christians to voice concern over such things. One only need to look at the moral decline of the entertainment industry, the epidemic corruption in business and government to see the deeply sinful hearts of our citizenry. It's becoming clear why the United States is not mentioned in the Bible as a major participant of the soon coming Tribulation Period. If we continue on the same path that we are currently on, then we are going to deserve every ounce of what is about to happen to us.
    Ringo,

    At least with regard to your statement about how we have desensitized ourself as a nation to the killing of the unborn, I must agree with you. I think that we've lulled ourselves into a blind acceptance of what is. While we can take some comfort in personal choices we make at the family level to protect our children, born and unborn, it doesn't change the incredible disrespect for life that we see happening in the USA.

    It's a major concern. There are definitely consequences for how we live our life and what we do. Ultimately there are no real worldly kings (these are part of a larger illusion that we give ourselves while we are here) but insofar as we create structures for what passes for "human governance," I do think it is important that people make an attempt to vote and do so with an eye to values of candidates.

    This is a difficult election for anyone who does care about values of any kind and would be looking for them to be manifested in a candidate. Values and standards have essentially gone out the window for the past few presidential election cycles. Most people would agree that both major candidates do not exemplify good values or standards that they would like to see manifested in a person.

    Regarding the prediction stuff, which is really what this thread is focused on, I think that there is an underlying element to the values and standards issue that has significant bearing on predictions and likely outcome. The fact that people don't trust Clinton and that most people don't see her as having good values means she doesn't have widespread popular support. The fact that Trump has been seen as having his own problems and personal failures, and hasn't been identified as someone who, for example, evangelicals might ardently support on the basis of values, means that he'll have less votes even though a (mostly Christian) voting base will arguably be avoiding Clinton like she's the plague. At the same time, people see that the candidates represent starkly different approaches to markets, rights, and values. This causes a polarization which is part of the reason why a 269-269 split is increasingly likely. The differences that you see here have created a polarizing effect in the USA, which we are seeing manifested in voting behavior.

    Even given Nevada's Democratic advantage in early voting, which was reported on recently by certain outlets, the significant lead that Trump has in the polls there combined with the lack of lead by early votes that Democrats have when compared to past years, strongly suggests that Trump will take Nevada. (Additional data supporting my Nevada claim.) This will, however, depend on how (or whether!) Republicans vote on Election Day. This is also the case with Florida, where the race is even closer, but where Trump is still projected to win the state.

    It's kind of sad that merely to prevent the worst possible candidate (Clinton, IMHO) from attaining office, it really does come down to Republicans in a few counties in a few states (Nevada, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, basically, at this point) turning out en masse on Election Day and voting. The rest of the country does kind of have a say, but it's almost already decided in most states, whereas the key states is really where it's going to turn. If the Republicans turn out and vote, as all the data suggests they will, and if trends continue (FiveThirtyEight analysis, Market factor, Wikileaks factor, Trump rising trend in swing states) which so far have all favored Trump, then Trump wins. Of course, if Republicans stay on their couches on Election Day, we'll get a Clinton presidency despite this prediction which clearly indicates a Trump victory.
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  6. #15
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    Some have suggested that "this will be our last election." If you feel that way, all the more reason to get out and vote (if you haven't already). If you don't think that this will be our last election, and knowing how close it will be, hopefully you will vote also and tip the scales in a way that makes sense for this country.

    Here's your polling place (handy website for determining where to go):

    https://triggerthevote.org/find-polling-place/
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  7. #16
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    As I've said before, I personally don't know what God’s involvement might be in the election process of the United States, however, I do not believe that The Almighty is particularly pleased with either of our candidates. If God was a Voter, this would be a hard one to call. Two people who seem to believe they are flawless. But have no doubt, God does have His hand in it. Throughout Jewish history, when God was rejected or scorned, the Jews had a bad day. It's the same way with us today. America is stumbling all over itself by its rejection of God. It's my opinion that God is letting Satan determine the rulers today. God is giving him great leeway. Contrary to what one of the candidates said…our country isn’t great because we are good. America is great because God has blessed it, and we need His favor to survive as a nation.

    I have no delusion in thinking that either candidate is showing God’s “favor.”America is in big trouble.The majority of Washington D.C. and the American citizenry are dominated today by a demonic, relativistic, leftist, secular and godless mindset. We're stuck with two people who seem to believe they're flawless, and it's from this insane asylum that the candidate most committed to the destruction of our nation through the dismantling of our Constitution to promote the inevitable NWO agenda will be elected America's next president. That alone is enough to convince me that America is finished, it's more than obvious that there's not enough intelligence left for our country to survive much longer.
    ~ God Hates Religion ~
    But even if we or an angel from heaven should preach to you a gospel contrary to the one we preached to you, let him be accursed.

  8. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo View Post
    As I've said before, I personally don't know what God’s involvement might be in the election process of the United States, however, I do not believe that The Almighty is particularly pleased with either of our candidates. If God was a Voter, this would be a hard one to call. Two people who seem to believe they are flawless. But have no doubt, God does have His hand in it. Throughout Jewish history, when God was rejected or scorned, the Jews had a bad day. It's the same way with us today. America is stumbling all over itself by its rejection of God. It's my opinion that God is letting Satan determine the rulers today. God is giving him great leeway. Contrary to what one of the candidates said…our country isn’t great because we are good. America is great because God has blessed it, and we need His favor to survive as a nation.

    I have no delusion in thinking that either candidate is showing God’s “favor.”America is in big trouble.The majority of Washington D.C. and the American citizenry are dominated today by a demonic, relativistic, leftist, secular and godless mindset. We're stuck with two people who seem to believe they're flawless, and it's from this insane asylum that the candidate most committed to the destruction of our nation through the dismantling of our Constitution to promote the inevitable NWO agenda will be elected America's next president. That alone is enough to convince me that America is finished, it's more than obvious that there's not enough intelligence left for our country to survive much longer. Like my signature says...
    May our evil overlord and savior Lucifer in all his infinite evil wisdom continue to rain down his blessings on this nation. All hail our evil overlord!!!!

  9. #18
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    Howdy,

    Quote Originally Posted by freethink View Post
    Hey Stengun,

    Since it sounds (from your prediction above) like you are claiming that Trump will lose the election (I think, although you didn't come right out and say it), I'm curious as to the basis for your claims. Please note that I'm not refuting you one way or the other, I'm simply asking you to back up your position with some sort of evidence (this can be hard to do since technically, we can't see the future... but in the case of my prediction, I provided examples of what data I was relying on in developing my prediction for a Trump win initially, and then provided additional comments citing market factors and Wikileaks / FBI factors as additional examples of support for my claim). Keep in mind that if you end up citing aggregate polls (such as RealClearPolitics, as I did), when the candidates are within a percentage point or two of each other (as they are in Florida) then that's considered well within the margin of error, so we can't really know for sure, but we can make estimates based on trends.

    So, what's your data, and upon what do you base your assertions?

    Note: Before you respond, you should probably take a look at the data in from Florida on early voting, indicating that Republicans have the advantage there. (I believe that right now Republicans are leading in either 33 or 34 of Florida's 67 counties, based on just the early voting alone, so to say Florida is a close race would be putting it mildly indeed.) https://countyballotfiles.elections....ts/PublicStats -- The swing counties in Florida, and thus the counties that could tip the election (within Florida itself), are Pinellas and Hillsborough. Early voting data presently has more Democratic ballots returned in those two counties, but the count is not yet complete and the upswing in poll / market conditions (that seems to have translated into a trend favoring Trump in swing states) has not yet been felt and translated into votes on election day. (Additionally, the early vote plus military / overseas / absentee ballot count is not complete until after election day, November 8th.)

    (Edited to add more indicators:) If you are looking for more indicators prior to election day about voter sentiment in Florida, which absolutely and certainly is the key state in this Presidential race, take a look at what's happening with the Senate race there. Per CNN, "Sen. Marco Rubio heads into Election Day as a favorite against Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, buoyed by GOP money, name recognition and winning over Latino voters in Miami-Dade County. But Florida is the ultimate swing state -- and no statewide race there can be taken for granted. Murphy has benefited by a renewed push by the top of the ticket -- and by President Barack Obama -- hoping to ride Hillary Clinton's coattails into office, even though Democratic groups have mostly avoided spending in the expensive state.
    A CNN-ORC poll out Wednesday showed Rubio clinging to a one-point lead, but most operatives on both sides believe the GOP senator is in a more comfortable position." This is one more indicator which suggests that Republicans are moving comfortably towards a positive finish in Florida, and although the Presidential race will be close, I continue to assert that Trump will be the winner, based on the data that is available to us right now (as has been cited in this thread).
    Simple...........

    I believe there are more Patriotic Americans than there are deplorables.

    Pretty simple.

    Paul
    I'm so Liberal that I work at the Bill and Hillary Clinton Regional Airport!

  10. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo View Post
    If God was a Voter, this would be a hard one to call. (...) But have no doubt, God does have His hand in it. (...)
    One could argue that God is at work in all things all the time, and we simply often choose not to see it (read works of Muir and A.W. Tozer). However, there has been an example of an electoral college deadlock, so it was sent to the House, and the House vote was (at least in the mind of one Representative) the result of divine inspiration.

    On February 9, 1825. Representative Stephen Van Rensselaer had promised to support everyone -- he held the swing ballot in the decisive state. When the House balloting began that afternoon, Van Rensselaer was still in a quandary. As the rest of the New York delegation passed their ballots to the teller, he bowed his head in prayer, seeking a sign from on high. He opened his eyes, and there on the floor was a ballot marked for John Quincy Adams. "Oh, my God!" Van Rensselaer snatched up the ballot and cast it as his own. So Adams was elected President.
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  11. #20
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    And then came the Wild Cards.

    The factors I've mentioned in supporting my prediction for a Trump win didn't cite things like Wild Cards. After all, we don't know what the Wild Cards will be.

    But one of them has certainly emerged in recent days and is worth mentioning:

    A Washington State elector that has stated he will refuse to vote for Clinton (but appears also to be unlikely to vote for Trump).

    Like I said, Wild Card. I think we'll see a few more similar wild cards in this election.

    Story on this here: Washington state elector says he won't vote for Clinton | Fox News
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