Predictions
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Thread: Predictions

  1. #1
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    Predictions

    Going into the last few days right before the election on Tuesday November 8, 2016, I'm going to make a few predictions.

    The following prediction(s) are based primarily on observations from polls aggregated at RealClearPolitics as well as ancillary observations from FiveThirtyEight, a blog which analyzes political issues.

    Bear in mind that the poll numbers are not necessarily accurate indicators, for a variety of reasons, one of them being that the people conducting polls aren't sampling a very large number of the voting population, and two, that engagement with the persons being polled doesn't necessarily accurately represent how they will vote or how anyone else will. So the aggregate polling figures give you an idea, a tip of the iceberg if you will. They can give you a notion of how things are trending, but they are not by any means perfect indicators.

    So with that said, here are my predictions.

    1) If the vote was held tomorrow, Clinton would win, taking Florida, losing NC and NH. Here is a map of electoral votes for this scenario.

    This is primarily because Clinton is showing as ahead in Florida at the moment, but only narrowly and within a margin of error (one percentage point as of Nov. 4, 2016). However, the aggregate polls showing Clinton being one percentage point ahead only go up to November 2nd, and do not yet account for Trump's climbing trend in Florida which has not yet been measured by new polls. It may be that by the time we are closer to election day, newer polls will have erased this one point lead Clinton has.

    2) However, the vote is not being held tomorrow (Nov. 5). The vote is being held on Nov. 8, 2016. What's more, this year, there will be more military and overseas absentee ballots being turned in than in any other year. Even a small number of votes one way or the other could turn this election in a swing state.

    My prediction therefore is that the trend which is being seen in some other swing states, where Trump has recently overtaken Clinton (such as in North Carolina and New Hampshire) in the polls, will also continue in Florida. Clinton's marginal lead will level off or disappear and Trump will win in Florida, NC, and NH.

    However, this will not be enough for Trump to win the election. The election will deadlock and will be sent to the House of Representatives. Furthermore, even if McMullin were to pull off a miracle play in Utah and take that state, that would not remove Trump or Clinton from contention. It would simply send the top three to the House where a decision would need to be made.

    Therefore, I am predicting an electoral college deadlock in which the result will be decided by the House of Representatives. In this scenario I believe that Trump would win the outcome of the House vote.

    This is what I'm predicting the map will look like following election day. (If I'm wrong, then Clinton will become president, but this is what I see as the most likely outcome.)

    All state predictions as shown in the map above are based on current trends which are visible or numerically obvious from a cursory examination of graphs and aggregate poll numbers of RealClearPolitics and some ancillary observations of the FiveThirtyEight blog.

    If you have not yet voted (haven't voted by mail or haven't early voted) and are wondering where your polling place is ahead of election day, this is a tool that will help: https://triggerthevote.org/find-polling-place/
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  3. #2
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    Here's my personal, unscientific, prediction about the upcoming election.

    I'm using baseball's World Series as my predictor.

    Like the series games, the polls' results will bounce back and forth from one "team" to another. It will be that way until the end of election day, breaking even with poll/game wins and losses, 3-to-3. Then, at the end of the 7th game (election day final results), uh oh--a tie! So, the election process goes into extra innings (vote goes to the House). Then, the underdog team (Trump), just like the Cubs, breaks the tie and wins. Thus, ending a long drought (Cubbies' goat curse/Obama's reign).

    Even the competitor's home team advantage (political experience) can't overcome the enthusiastic fans' support for the underdog team.


  4. #3
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    Good analogy

    Quote Originally Posted by Reba View Post
    Here's my personal, unscientific, prediction about the upcoming election.

    I'm using baseball's World Series as my predictor.

    Like the series games, the polls' results will bounce back and forth from one "team" to another. It will be that way until the end of election day, breaking even with poll/game wins and losses, 3-to-3. Then, at the end of the 7th game (election day final results), uh oh--a tie! So, the election process goes into extra innings (vote goes to the House). Then, the underdog team (Trump), just like the Cubs, breaks the tie and wins. Thus, ending a long drought (Cubbies' goat curse/Obama's reign).

    Even the competitor's home team advantage (political experience) can't overcome the enthusiastic fans' support for the underdog team.

    Good analogy.

    I also found an old article from October 1980 (Atlantic) titled 'Deadlock: What happens if nobody wins'

    Interesting reading. I think it is the most likely outcome right now.

    Deadlock: What Happens If Nobody Wins
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  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Reba View Post
    Here's my personal, unscientific, prediction about the upcoming election.
    Here's my personal, unscientific gut preditction about the upcoming election.

    We're f'ing toast, burnt, rancid, moldy, toast.
    “Religion is an insult to human dignity. Without it you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things.
    But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.” ― Steven Weinberg

  6. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by XD40scinNC View Post
    Here's my personal, unscientific gut preditction about the upcoming election.

    We're f'ing toast, burnt, rancid, moldy, toast.
    But while we're making this toast, or getting made into this toast to which you refer, at the very least, we are able to break out the popcorn:

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/794641748333101057
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  7. #6
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    Factoring in the Market

    Factoring in the market, taking into account years from 1928 to the present day, there is an 86 percent chance based on market indicators alone that Trump will win this election, lending credence to the assertions that I made in my original post that Trump will win Florida, deadlock the electoral college, and win as the result of a House vote.
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  8. #7
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    Factoring in the Latest Wikileaks Revelations, FBI Investigation, etc.

    While the latest polls I cited in my post kicking off this thread aren't fully responsive (because of the dates the polls were done) to the latest Wikileaks revelations (new release came out on Nov. 3, and another batch of Podesta e-mails came out five hours ago - the evening of Nov. 4, 2016), and also don't fully reveal the public response to the FBI investigation, it does seem that the initial public response is one on a par with Watergate, but with the scale and extent of the leaks and investigation, and the overwhelming nature of the information, for which there is no precedent, simply put, there is no comparable term, so it is perhaps best to simply call it Hillarygate.

    One of the most sure signs that the releases are likely to actually translate into less votes for Hillary on November 8th is the recent release indicating that both Huma Abedin and Hillary Clinton were directly involved in child trafficking. Even if not all the claims can be corroborated, even if only 10 percent of what the release suggests is true, then it is damning for Clinton and she would certainly lose votes as a result. This is clearly an important issue that the public needs to know about, and it's vital that people understand that this is just one of the many reasons why we cannot have Hillary Clinton in the White House.

    The likely effect of these releases, plus the effect of the ongoing analyses and investigation by the FBI, will certainly translate to less votes for Clinton. It cannot be known until after election day what the actual effect will be, but there is no question that it will have a measurable effect (just like the market indicators, and just like the concern that the public has with political stagnation, corruption, jobs / economic issues, and security, which are driving Trump up in the polls).
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  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Reba View Post
    Here's my personal, unscientific, prediction about the upcoming election.

    I'm using baseball's World Series as my predictor.

    Like the series games, the polls' results will bounce back and forth from one "team" to another. It will be that way until the end of election day, breaking even with poll/game wins and losses, 3-to-3. Then, at the end of the 7th game (election day final results), uh oh--a tie! So, the election process goes into extra innings (vote goes to the House). Then, the underdog team (Trump), just like the Cubs, breaks the tie and wins. Thus, ending a long drought (Cubbies' goat curse/Obama's reign).

    Even the competitor's home team advantage (political experience) can't overcome the enthusiastic fans' support for the underdog team.

    this is hysterical. reba, you just made my day!

  10. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reba View Post
    Here's my personal, unscientific, prediction about the upcoming election.

    I'm using baseball's World Series as my predictor.

    Like the series games, the polls' results will bounce back and forth from one "team" to another. It will be that way until the end of election day, breaking even with poll/game wins and losses, 3-to-3. Then, at the end of the 7th game (election day final results), uh oh--a tie! So, the election process goes into extra innings (vote goes to the House). Then, the underdog team (Trump), just like the Cubs, breaks the tie and wins. Thus, ending a long drought (Cubbies' goat curse/Obama's reign).

    Even the competitor's home team advantage (political experience) can't overcome the enthusiastic fans' support for the underdog team.

    That's, in part, Evan McMullin's game plan. He wants to win one state, Utah, and somehow prevent the other candidates to get 270 electoral votes. Then, this goes to the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. Now, Evan McMullin is counting on the House somehow voting for the candidate with the least amount of electoral votes, him.

  11. #10
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    Howdy,

    Here's a quote from the Donald:

    "I'm going to lose so bigly that it will be amazing. Trust me. It will be so incredible that it'll make you head spin. Trust me. It'll be incredible. My tiny hands? They don't mean any thing. It's incredible. Trust me. She's a nasty woman. Trust me. I'm a bad hombre. It's incredible. But she's a nasty woman. Trust me. It's bigly."

    Paul

    P.S. My prediction: Pain. Lots of pain. And crying and whiny from the basement dwellers and trailer park crowd.

    :
    I'm so Liberal that I work at the Bill and Hillary Clinton Regional Airport!

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