The end of OPEC?


Sheldon

New member
http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/to...h-of-opec.aspx

The death of OPEC

Saudi Arabia walked out on OPEC yesterday, saying it would not honor the cartel's production cut. It was tired of rants from Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and the well-dressed oil minister from Iran.
As the world's largest crude exporter, the kingdom in the desert took its ball and went home.
As the Saudis left the building, the message was shockingly clear. “Saudi Arabia will meet the market’s demand,” a senior OPEC delegate told the New York Times. “We will see what the market requires and we will not leave a customer without oil."
OPEC will still have lavish meetings and a nifty headquarters in Vienna, Austria, but the Saudis have made certain the the organization has lost its teeth. Even though the cartel argued that the sudden drop in crude was due to "oversupply", OPEC's most powerful member knows that the drop may only be temporary. Cold weather later this year could put pressure on prices. So could a decision by Russia that it wants to "punish" the U.S. and European Union for a time. That political battle is only at its beginning.
The downward pressure on oil got a second hand. Brazil has confirmed another huge oil deposit to add to one it discovered off-shore earlier this year. The first field uncovered by Petrobras has the promise of being one of the largest in the world. The breadth of that deposit has now expanded.
OPEC needs the Saudis to have any credibility in terms of pricing, supply, and the ongoing success of its bully pulpit. By failing to keep its most critical member, it forfeits its leverage.
OPEC has made no announcement about any possibility of dissolving, but the process is already over.
 

NDS

New member
OPEC has actually lasted a good long time for a cartel. Most collapse within just a few years.

It would be nice to finally see the end of this one.:yes2:
 

tattedupboy

Thank God I'm alive!
This is good news indeed. While I studied economics in college, I learned that while cartels (such as OPEC) do indeed have the ability to manipulate prices, one disadvantage of them is that individual members can be tempted to "cheat," as Saudi Arabia is doing here, and thus, they tend not to be stable. I had also figured that one or more OPEC members would eventually get greedy and attempt to ignore production quotas, but I had no idea it would be this soon. Maybe now, oil prices will be determined by the market, and not by this illegal cartel.
 

Red Hat

New member
Actually the speculators drove prices up. Something the cartel has been trying to do for years. Once the prices were up the cartel cut production trying to maintain the higher price. Once the price drops a little more it should stabilize. If congress puts some leashes on the speculators it should stay at that price for a while.
 

tattedupboy

Thank God I'm alive!
Actually the speculators drove prices up. Something the cartel has been trying to do for years. Once the prices were up the cartel cut production trying to maintain the higher price. Once the price drops a little more it should stabilize. If congress puts some leashes on the speculators it should stay at that price for a while.

While speculators are indeed drawing much disdain from the public, they aren't pushing the prices up. Yes, they're cashing in big time from the price increases, but blaming them for the high prices is like blaming a thermometer for temperatures being too high or low.
 

Sheldon

New member
While speculators are indeed drawing much disdain from the public, they aren't pushing the prices up. Yes, they're cashing in big time from the price increases, but blaming them for the high prices is like blaming a thermometer for temperatures being too high or low.

Wrong if crude were not not on the commodities market then the Price would still be in the $50 mark. OPEC is delighted that they are driving the cost. See bellow for more good news...

GOOGLE it or follow this link. It will blow your mind. USGS Release: 3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate— (4/10/2008 2:25:36 PM)

The U.S. Geological Service issued a report in April ('08) that only scientists and oilmen knew was coming, but man was it big. It was a revised report (hadn't been updated since '95) on how much oil was in this area of the western 2/3 of North Dakota; western South Dakota; and extreme eastern Montana ... check THIS out:

The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates it at 503 billion barrels. Even if just 10% of the oil is recoverable... at $107 a barrel, we're looking at a resource base worth more than $5.3 trillion.

'When I first briefed legislators on this, you could practically see their jaws hit the floor. They had no idea.' says Terry Johnson, the Montana Legislature's financial analyst.

'This sizable find is now the highest-producing onshore oil field found in the past 56 years,' reports The Pittsburgh Post Gazette. It's a formation known as the Williston Basin, but is more commonly referred to as the 'Bakken.' And it stretches from Northern Montana, through North Dakota and into Canada. For years, U.S.oil exploration has been considered a dead end. Even the 'Big Oil' companies gave up searching for major oil wells decades ago. However, a recent technological breakthrough ha s opened up the Bakken's massive reserves... and we now have access of up to 500 billion barrels. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL!

That's enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 41 years straight.

2. [And if THAT didn't throw you on the floor, then this next one should - because it's from TWO YEARS AGO, people!]

U.S.Oil Discovery- Largest Reserve in the World!
Stansberry Report Onli ne - 4/20/2006 Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction.

They reported this stunning news: We have more oil inside our borders, than all the other proven reserves on earth. Here are the official estimates:

-8-times as much oil as Saudi Arabia
-18-times as much oil a s Iraq
-21-times as much oil as Kuwait
-22-times as much oil as Iran
-500-times as much oil as Yemen- and it's all right here in the Western United States.

HOW can this BE? HOW can we NOT BE extracting this!? Because the democrats,environmentalists and left wing republicans have blocked all efforts to help America become independent of foreign oil.

James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we've got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East -more than 2 TRILLION barrels. Untapped. That's more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today, reports The Denver Post.
 

tattedupboy

Thank God I'm alive!
Wrong if crude were not not on the commodities market then the Price would still be in the $50 mark. OPEC is delighted that they are driving the cost. See bellow for more good news...

Have you ever thought that rather than the price of oil being caused by speculation, that instead the increase in speculation is caused by the increase in the price of oil? That's what's happening. Just like I said before, to believe that speculation caused oil prices to increase is like believing that thermometers are to blame for temperatures that are too hot or too cold. Speculators respond to the market, but they don't control oil prices.
 

Sheldon

New member
Have you ever thought that rather than the price of oil being caused by speculation, that instead the increase in speculation is caused by the increase in the price of oil? That's what's happening. Just like I said before, to believe that speculation caused oil prices to increase is like believing that thermometers are to blame for temperatures that are too hot or too cold. Speculators respond to the market, but they don't control oil prices.

Oil speculation is a real bad idea, you in essence create a middle man, it's kind of like adding bureaucracy to the government.:crazy_pilot:

Just imagine if ammo were sold to a commodities broker first what kind of mess it would be. Some bozo buys the future production of Winchester the store shelf are full and the stuff is on sale for $12.00 a box, then Winchester has a labor contract coming up and the says white box should be worth $35.00 a box due to possible supply issues, so when they sell the ammo in the store they get to pay his price if they want any more, golly wouldn't that be fun? Yes that is a simplified annology :nhl_checking:

Oil is no different, it is placed on a commodities market, they pump it, then the price of the commodities is driven my people that listen to rumors, and bid upon those fallacy's.:girl_wacko:

Years ago oil was not a commodity, supplies flowed to the refineries without a problem, prices were very reasonable, there were no problems and then they made it a commodity, sugar, coca co, beans, corn are fine examples of a commodity but not oil. :drag:

Commodities are funds used to raise capital on something you do not have yet and the oil Rich countries need the extra cash like I need to weigh 50 more pounds. I repeat it should not be a commodity and any who drive the cost are A******* :triniti:
 

tattedupboy

Thank God I'm alive!
Oil speculation is a real bad idea, you in essence create a middle man, it's kind of like adding bureaucracy to the government.:crazy_pilot:

Just imagine if ammo were sold to a commodities broker first what kind of mess it would be. Some bozo buys the future production of Winchester the store shelf are full and the stuff is on sale for $12.00 a box, then Winchester has a labor contract coming up and the says white box should be worth $35.00 a box due to possible supply issues, so when they sell the ammo in the store they get to pay his price if they want any more, golly wouldn't that be fun? Yes that is a simplified annology :nhl_checking:

Oil is no different, it is placed on a commodities market, they pump it, then the price of the commodities is driven my people that listen to rumors, and bid upon those fallacy's.:girl_wacko:

Years ago oil was not a commodity, supplies flowed to the refineries without a problem, prices were very reasonable, there were no problems and then they made it a commodity, sugar, coca co, beans, corn are fine examples of a commodity but not oil. :drag:

Commodities are funds used to raise capital on something you do not have yet and the oil Rich countries need the extra cash like I need to weigh 50 more pounds. I repeat it should not be a commodity and any who drive the cost are A******* :triniti:

Have you noticed that speculation increases when the price of oil goes up and decreases when it goes down? Think about it; if speculators controlled oil prices, wouldn't they do what's best for their pocketbooks and keep bidding the price up? Think about it.
 

Sheldon

New member
Have you noticed that speculation increases when the price of oil goes up and decreases when it goes down? Think about it; if speculators controlled oil prices, wouldn't they do what's best for their pocketbooks and keep bidding the price up? Think about it.

Yeah it is called fear factor, just as it can go up on a rumor it can go down, they are fueled by rumors, heck when it was news that there was a possible strike at a British owned oil Field it shot up close to ten bucks, and all it took was Bush to make one announcement to start the ball rolling. They are not in the business of loosing money so they back off. I reiterate it is a real bad idea to let a third party influence the price of crude.

OPEC uses them like a puppet on a string to increase profits, these bozos are already so rich that they treat $1000.000.00 like U N I do a dollar.

Put oil back on the world market and let your law of supply and demand regulate the price and not a commodities broker!
 
Last edited:

MP3Mogul

New member
Have you ever thought that rather than the price of oil being caused by speculation, that instead the increase in speculation is caused by the increase in the price of oil? That's what's happening. Just like I said before, to believe that speculation caused oil prices to increase is like believing that thermometers are to blame for temperatures that are too hot or too cold. Speculators respond to the market, but they don't control oil prices.

The speculators DID case the price of gas to be what it is today.

Every time the wind blew, or someone farted, the price went up... omg, IRAQ doesn't like us... gas went up .20 cents.... OMG a hurricane would wipe out such and such... gas went up .20 cents per gallon..

Yeah the speculators caused it for sure... just like in the 1970's during the "SHORTAGE" that never happend and never was.... yeah... we've all been ripped off...

They should all be fired........ the govt should have done something long ago... but also the oil industry greases the government's hands... (not just Bush) it's all of them...
 

tattedupboy

Thank God I'm alive!
Supply and demand, supply and demand, supply and demand. You people are starting to sound like the liberals we love to ridicule.
 

Sheldon

New member
Supply and demand, supply and demand, supply and demand. You people are starting to sound like the liberals we love to ridicule.

Actually you need to study the commodities market, Have you ever bought a commoditie? I have Sugar, coco, n palladium, the market is driven by rumor, future availability, and demand but the investors determine the price, if I do not buy your commodity or place a "put" on it the the price will decrease, however if I just say "buy" then the sky is the limit and that is the oil commodities market son...:nhl_checking:
 

tattedupboy

Thank God I'm alive!
Actually you need to study the commodities market, Have you ever bought a commoditie? I have Sugar, coco, n palladium, the market is driven by rumor, future availability, and demand but the investors determine the price, if I do not buy your commodity or place a "put" on it the the price will decrease, however if I just say "buy" then the sky is the limit and that is the oil commodities market son...:nhl_checking:

Sounds like supply and demand to me. All these factors you mention influence how much of the commodity buyers are willing to buy and sellers are willing to produce. All you're doing is proving my point even more and more.
 

Sheldon

New member
Sounds like supply and demand to me. All these factors you mention influence how much of the commodity buyers are willing to buy and sellers are willing to produce. All you're doing is proving my point even more and more.

Now I am confused just what does rumors and future Availability have to do with current supply and demand, Future availability of coco or sugar have more to do with the weather, than the whims of some Oil Sheik, or OPEC, your argument is hollow.
 

tattedupboy

Thank God I'm alive!
Now I am confused just what does rumors and future Availability have to do with current supply and demand, Future availability of coco or sugar have more to do with the weather, than the whims of some Oil Sheik, or OPEC, your argument is hollow.

I'll be happy to tell you what future availability has to do with current supply and demand. When people are uncertain about future availability, they tend to buy more of it now (a phenomenon known as panic buying), and because that decreases short term supply, prices go up. That's the case for any commodity, not just oil, sugar, or cocoa.
 

Sheldon

New member
I'll be happy to tell you what future availability has to do with current supply and demand. When people are uncertain about future availability, they tend to buy more of it now (a phenomenon known as panic buying), and because that decreases short term supply, prices go up. That's the case for any commodity, not just oil, sugar, or cocoa.

Son You keep looking but not reading there is no panic buy of oil. Refineries buy what they need from a broker which in turn buys it from a middle man.

Supplies are regulated by the guy that owns the well. Supplies vary only by the expansion of world demand, which they track very closely. Which in turn can also be figured out by any fifth grader, the baseline price is set by the supplier. When it goes on a commodities market and all bets are off as to how much it can hit.

Further demand is finite you can only put so much in a gas tank before it overflows, and yes this can be figured for as well. When every aspect of the product from ground to pump is controlled how can it be a commodities?

Granted I am no business expert but in the business wold the more hands you have in the pot the more the soup will cost, this is a given!

We cannot control how much of a true commodities will be available any more than we can control the weather. If you believe otherwise then shame on your teacher You are a truly brainwashed individual.:bad:
 
Last edited:

tattedupboy

Thank God I'm alive!
Son You keep looking but not reading there is no panic buy of oil. Refineries buy what they need from a broker which in turn buys it from a middle man.

Supplies are regulated by the guy that owns the well. Supplies vary only by the expansion of world demand, which they track very closely. Which in turn can also be figured out by any fifth grader, the baseline price is set by the supplier. When it goes on a commodities market and all bets are off as to how much it can hit.

Further demand is finite you can only put so much in a gas tank before it overflows, and yes this can be figured for as well. When every aspect of the product from ground to pump is controlled how can it be a commodities?

Granted I am no business expert but in the business wold the more hands you have in the pot the more the soup will cost, this is a given!

We cannot control how much of a true commodities will be available any more than we can control the weather. If you believe otherwise then shame on your teacher You are a truly brainwashed individual.:bad:

Yes there is. Oil is no different from any other commodity, and when something is expected to disrupt supplies, people rush to buy more of it in the near term so that they can be sure that they'll have it before it runs out. Everything I say is absolutely true. Just take a moment to study economics and you'll see that.

And as for your argument that we cannot control how much of a commodity will be available, that's also not true. OPEC is a cartel, and if it cuts production (assuming none of its members cheats), world oil prices will go up; that's a given. How much suppliers are willing to supply depends on the price; the higher the price, the more they're going to want to produce, because the more money they'll make. The lower the price, the less they're going to want to produce because they're going to want to wait for prices to go up before they produce more.
 

New Threads

Staff online

Members online

Forum statistics

Threads
49,128
Messages
621,631
Members
74,103
Latest member
jawman
Top